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College Football Betting Advice – 10/5/19

Week 6 of the college football season is here! Through the first five weeks of the season, my betting record is at 12-10 (54.5%). Yes, that included a UNC live line vs. Clemson at +638. As you can imagine, I was extremely disappointed with the two-point conversion play. You play a phenomenal game, put together a brilliant 16-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that runs 8:37 off the clock and that’s the play you run? Absolutely brutal.

That being said, let’s get to the picks for this weekend. Once again, feel free to reach out to me at any time on Twitter @Sports_Burd, or at my email burddylan31@gmail.com.

1. No. 3 Georgia (-25) @ Tennessee

Jake Fromm and Georgia will head to the laughing stock of the SEC, Tennessee this Saturday for a 7 p.m. Georgia and Tennessee have each played one SEC game, and as you would have expected, they yielded polar opposite results. Georgia defeated Vanderbilt on the road 30-6 in Week 1 and Tennessee got throttled by Florida 34-3 last week in The Swamp.

The Bulldogs have only allowed an average of 13.3 points per game this season, and I don’t see this Tennessee offense doing much at all with Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback, who was 10-17 with only 124 yards and two interceptions @ Florida last week. Tennessee also allowed 213 rushing yards to Georgia State in Week 1, so I don’t see a scenario where they’ll be able to stop Georgia RB DeAndre Swift, a top-two back in the country. This has all the makings of a blowout in Knoxville, and I think Georgia wins this game by more than 25.

2. No. 4 Ohio State (-20) vs. No. 25 Michigan State

Joel Klatt tweeted a pretty interesting statistic on Tuesday. Michigan State hasn’t scored a touchdown against Ohio State since 2016. In fact, they have only scored a total of nine points combined against the Ohio State the last two years.

Meanwhile, Ohio State is averaging 52.4 points per this season, throttling every single opponent they play. Justin Fields looks like a Heisman finalist as he has 16 passing touchdowns already on the year. I understand that Michigan State’s defense is seventh in the nation in yards allowed per game (253.8), but they allowed 31 points to Indiana at home last week. They’re not stopping Fields and Ohio State.

In addition, Ohio State’s defense has been lights out, a major weak spot for them the past few years. Cornerback Jeffrey Okudah and defense end Chase Young are potential top-10 picks. I don’t see Brian Lewerke and Michigan State putting up many points in this game, as they don’t only have to play the Buckeyes’ defense, but they also have to deal with the blackout crowd in Columbus as night.

I think 20 points is incredibly low on the spread, as I see this game finishing in the 38-10, 38-7 range.

3. No. 6 Oklahoma (-32) @ Kansas

Oklahoma has beat UCLA on the road by 34 and beat Texas Tech at home by 39 in their last two games. Kansas is far worse than both of those teams in my opinion. They’re Kansas football! They just got blown out by TCU by 37 last week, and they lost 12-7 to Coastal Carolina earlier in the season. Not to mention who Oklahoma has at quarterback right now, your Heisman Trophy leader at the moment, Jalen Hurts. Hurts already has 1295 passing yards and 12 touchdowns to go along with his 443 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the season. It’s Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma vs. Kansas. The spread is 32, but I think Oklahoma wins this game 58-10.

4. No. 12 Penn State (-28.5) vs. Purdue

Penn State just marched into Maryland in their most-attended game in school history and blew them at 59-0 as 6.5-point favorites. The game was dominated by the Nittany Lions on both sides of the football from start to finish. Now, they’ll face a 1-3 Purdue team at home that will be without starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar and star wide receiver Rondale Moore.

The Penn State defense has yet to allow more than 13 points in a game this season, as they’re among the country’s best. Without Purdue’s best offensive players, I don’t see Penn State allowing more than two scores. If they do allow two touchdowns, then in order to cover the spread, Penn State would need to score into the mid-40s. I don’t see this being an issue for a team that just put up 59 points. This will be a blowout in Happy Valley, and I’m predicting a 49-13 finish.

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