Analyzed Fantasy Football Trades
Trade #3: From Vincent
Vincent Receives: Nick Chubb, Juju Smith-Schuster
Vincent Trades: David Johnson, DeVante Parker, Darren Waller
Additional Info: 1-point PPR
Outlook: This is an interesting trade, but to me, Darren Waller is a deal-breaker. There’s no doubt that you upgrade at running back and wide receiver by going from Johnson to Chubb and Parker to Juju, but the question is by how much? Is the upgrade worth giving up Waller?
While moving from David Johnson to Nick Chubb is a significant upgrade, I don’t think Chubb could be trusted like he was in prior years. The Browns clearly love Kareem Hunt, so much so that he had 17 touches compared to Nick Chubb’s 11 in Week 1. That’s going to happen some weeks. There are also going to be the weeks where Chubb goes off, like he did against the Bengals in Week 2 racking up 24.1 fantasy points. That being said, David Johnson is probably going to be a solid 10-12 points per week if he stays healthy and keeps getting the workload he is. Chubb is a significant upgrade, but I don’t feel like I can trust him fully yet.
In terms of going from Parker to Juju, I’m not sure I see much of an upgrade. Yes, Juju had 2 touchdowns in Week 1, but the emergence of Diontae Johnson is going to limit his production going forward. Diontae Johnson has 23 targets through two weeks which ranks 2nd amongst WRs. That’s a 31.9% target share. Juju only has 14 targets and a 19.4% share. With Parker, it’s clear he’s the No. 1 guy in Miami. Thursday night vs. Jacksonville he led the team in receiving and tied for the team-lead in targets, and if Miami can get him red zone looks, his fantasy value is going to sky.
So are those upgrades worth giving up Waller? Definitely not. Through 2 weeks, Waller’s seen 24 targets and a 38.7% target share. If his usage stays anywhere near that, he may just be the No. 1 tight end this season. Don’t do this deal. Waller is too valuable.
Vincent’s Team: 35%
The Other Team: 65%
Trade #2: From Chris
Chris Receives: Miles Sanders, Amari Cooper, Travis Kelce
Chris Trades: Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, Logan Thomas
Additional Info: PPR ESPN Season League
Outlook: I’m not going to jump into a ton of advanced stats here, because I see this as a pretty simple deal. Dalvin Cook is undoubtedly a top-5 RB and Davante Adams is undoubtedly a top-3 WR. Going from them to Miles Sanders and Amari Cooper is a massive downgrade, even if both of those guys end up being top-10 at their position, which is very possible.
Is that downgrade worth the massive upgrade from Logan Thomas to Travis Kelce? In my opinion, not a chance. Kelce is probably going to be the No. 1 TE, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Logan Thomas is top-8. Through two weeks, Thomas ranks 3rd amongst TEs in targets (17), 2nd in target share (27.0%), 5th in red zone targets (3) and 3rd in deep targets (2).
It’s not worth giving away Dalvin Cook and Davante Adams to upgrade to Travis Kelce at TE.
Chris’s Team: 35%%
The Other Team: 65%
Trade #1: From Caleb
Caleb Receives: Joshua Kelley, DeVante Parker, David Montgomery
Caleb Trades: Joe Mixon, Brandin Cooks, Ronald Jones
Additional Info: PPR, 1 RB
Outlook: As someone who was huge on Joe Mixon going into the season, he’s been underwhelming so far. He had 6.1 fantasy points in Week 1 and then 12.6 fantasy points in Week 2. However, he also started slow last year and I fully expect him to pick it up.
That being said, you’re getting two guys in return that I consider to be top-25 RBs right now. The Chargers are using Joshua Kelley like they did Melvin Gordon last year. He got 23 carries last game! As long as he’s getting these touches, he’s going to be very good. Montgomery has also looked impressive thus far, scoring 21.7 points in Week 2 and catching 3 passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. In addition, I don’t think giving up Ronald Jones is a huge loss because he’s likely going to split carries with Leonard Fournette all season.
In terms of the wide receivers, Parker is an upgrade from Cooks, even though we don’t really know what Cooks is going to become yet. I’m not going to judge him off of the first two weeks, but Parker will be better.
While I still like Mixon going forward, the package that you’re getting in return is more than sufficient. Make the trade.
Caleb’s Team: 55%
The Other Team: 45%