Analyzed Fantasy Football Trades
Trade #10: From Chris
Chris Receives: Josh Jacobs, Mike Evans
Chris Trades: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Brown
Additional Info: Full-PPR. 12-Team. Current RBs – Gibson, Henderson, Jackson and Perine. WRs – Allen Robinson, McLaurin, Kupp, Green, and Brown
Outlook: I’m not going to hop into a ton of detail here because looking at your roster, I think this is pretty simple. Right now, you’re lacking talent at the RB spot. Despite having a bad game in Week 7, Josh Jacobs gives you that. Don’t be fooled by Gibson’s 20-128-1 line against Dallas because Dallas has the worst defense I’ve ever seen. Gibson is solid, but not in the same world as Jacobs. It’s a major upgrade.
In terms of WRs, you replace McLaurin with Evans, which isn’t an upgrade right now, but could be soon. McLaurin still has a bad QB situation in Washington, and Evans could see himself with easier matchups with Brown coming in. Additionally, you have really good WRs, and losing Brown, who’s a major unknown at this point, isn’t that big of a deal.
I’d make this deal in a heartbeat.
Chris’s Team: 75%
The Other Team: 25%
Trade #9: From Marvin
Marvin Receives: Darren Waller, Nick Chubb
Marvin Trades: Terry McLaurin, Jonnu Smith
Additional Info: PPR, 8 Teams
Outlook: Jonnu Smith has proven to us that he can he’s a top-three or top-five tight end this year, which is what Darren Waller is as well. Deciding who’s actually better is too close to call right now. I’d call it a wash.
In this deal, you’re basically sacrificing Terry McLaurin to have Nick Chubb later in the year, as he’s out at least five more weeks. I don’t consider McLaurin a huge sacrifice, as Kyle Allen or Alex Smith at quarterback hurts him tremendously compared to having Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. McLaurin only had three catches for 26 yards this past week vs. the Rams. There’s no doubt he’ll have production issues with the quarterback change going forward.
Since you’re in an eight man league, I would do this deal, as you probably have the depth to replace Nick Chubb until he comes back. It’s a risk, but I like the investment for the final weeks of the season.
Marvin’s Team: 65%
The Other Team: 35%
Trade #8: From Josh
Josh Receives: Kenyan Drake, Adam Thielen, DJ Moore
Josh Trades: James Conner, Jamison Crowder, Jerick McKinnon
Additional Info: PPR, 10 Team, 2 FLEX
Outlook: I’m extremely low on Kenyan Drake going forward. He’s only averaging 3.85 yards per carry thus far, and despite getting a ton of touches, it’s clear to me that Chase Edmonds is the better player. I expect Edmonds to have the job by the end of the year. It’s definitely going to be a drop off going from Conner to Drake in the long term, but maybe not in the short term.
However, you absolutely kill you opponent in the next legs of the deal. Adam Thielen and DJ Moore are two extremely reliable wide receivers, and both are better than Jamison Crowder. Additionally, Jerick McKinnon is going to be a non-factor with Raheem Mostert healthy. He only had three touches in Week 5.
I would go into advanced stats and details on all the wide receivers, but it’s not worth it. That’s how badly you killed your opponent in this trade. Congratulations!
Josh’s Team: 80%
The Other Team: 20%
Trade #7: From Tyler
Tyler Receives: Dak Prescott
Tyler Trades: James Conner
Additional Info: 12 Man PPR, Single QB, Fumble and INT -2
Outlook: Dak Prescott has been incredible so far. He’s the fourth ranked QB in standard QB scoring. He leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,188 so far through three games in an absolutely stacked offense.
James Conner has also been very good when healthy. He has over 20 points in PPR in the last two games, and is getting a ton of the snap share, which was a concern after Week 1.
Normally, I’m always going to keep the high-ranked running back over the high-ranked quarterback. However, this deal all depends on what your roster looks like. If you’re deep at RB and have a bad quarterback, make the deal. If you’re not deep at RB and have a solid QB, then don’t make the deal. I’m grading this as a slight edge to the other team, given my preference towards running backs, but it really depends on your roster construction.
Tyler’s Team: 45%
The Other Team: 55%
Trade #6: From Alex
Alex Receives: Robert Woods
Alex Trades: David Johnson
Additional Info: PPR
Outlook: I’m not a huge David Johnson fan at all. Since Johnson’s first game where he scored 19.9 fantasy points, he’s looked worse, scoring 7.0 and 12.6 the next two games. He’s also an injury risk. The one thing to like about Johnson is that he ranks second amongst RBs in routes run, first in route participation, and sixth in yards per reception (10.1). However, he only has caught seven passes so far this season.
In terms of Robert Woods, you’re getting one of the most reliable wide receivers in the NFL. Woods has a 22.4% target share so far this season, and ranks 17th in fantasy points per game with 16.2. Additionally, he ranks third in yards after the catch with 147 total through three games. Woods is going to get his four or five receptions per week and get you a TD every other week. You know what you’re going to get from him, and that’s why I prefer him to David Johnson. Make the trade for sure.
Alex’s Team: 60%
The Other Team: 40%
Trade #5: From Richard
Richard Receives: Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey
Richard Trades: Aaron Jones
Additional Info: PPR
Outlook: This trade completely depends on the rest of your team. Christian McCaffrey is the best player in fantasy football, but remains out until at least Week 6. Is your team good enough to not have an RB1 for at least two more weeks and still be able to win games? If it is, this is a trade I’d highly consider doing.
However, if your team isn’t stacked, then this isn’t something I would do. Aaron Jones might be the second-best running back in fantasy football the way he’s playing, and I expect him to keep up his insane production. He’s averaging 26.6 points per game in PPR leagues, which is absurd. Hold onto Jones unless your team is that good, and can afford to be without an elite RB1 for 2 weeks.
In terms of Cam Newton, I don’t think he’s a major factor in this deal, as you can likely just pick up a QB on waivers who will put up similar points.
Richard’s Team: 47%
The Other Team: 53%
Trade #4: From Chris
Chris Receives: Todd Gurley and T.Y Hilton
Chris Trades: Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift
Additional Info: PPR
Outlook: I’m not a Todd Gurley fan. Despite him having 14 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown vs. the Bears this week, Brian Hill’s usage is increasing slowly. Hill had 35.4% of the snap share this week compared to Gurley’s 50.8% and 9 carries compared to Gurley’s 14. Gurley’s stock is slowly declining.
T.Y Hilton is someone who hasn’t had a good start to the season as he’s yet to get more than 6 points in a single week so far. I wouldn’t touch him despite several of Indy’s WRs being out.
Keenan Allen’s usage with Justin Herbert at QB has been sky-high. He had 13 receptions on 19 (!!!) targets this week. Despite what Anthony Lynn says, I think Herbert will have the starting job for the rest of the season, so I hold Allen in high-regard. I don’t think it’s worth it to give him up for Gurley and Hilton. In terms of D’Andre Swift, I don’t think he’s a throw-in. I expect his usage to be up by the middle-to-end of the year, so he could be valuable later on. I wouldn’t do this trade.
Chris’s Team: 40%
The Other Team: 60%
Trade #3: From Vincent
Vincent Receives: Nick Chubb, Juju Smith-Schuster
Vincent Trades: David Johnson, DeVante Parker, Darren Waller
Additional Info: 1-point PPR
Outlook: This is an interesting trade, but to me, Darren Waller is a deal-breaker. There’s no doubt that you upgrade at running back and wide receiver by going from Johnson to Chubb and Parker to Juju, but the question is by how much? Is the upgrade worth giving up Waller?
While moving from David Johnson to Nick Chubb is a significant upgrade, I don’t think Chubb could be trusted like he was in prior years. The Browns clearly love Kareem Hunt, so much so that he had 17 touches compared to Nick Chubb’s 11 in Week 1. That’s going to happen some weeks. There are also going to be the weeks where Chubb goes off, like he did against the Bengals in Week 2 racking up 24.1 fantasy points. That being said, David Johnson is probably going to be a solid 10-12 points per week if he stays healthy and keeps getting the workload he is. Chubb is a significant upgrade, but I don’t feel like I can trust him fully yet.
In terms of going from Parker to Juju, I’m not sure I see much of an upgrade. Yes, Juju had 2 touchdowns in Week 1, but the emergence of Diontae Johnson is going to limit his production going forward. Diontae Johnson has 23 targets through two weeks which ranks 2nd amongst WRs. That’s a 31.9% target share. Juju only has 14 targets and a 19.4% share. With Parker, it’s clear he’s the No. 1 guy in Miami. Thursday night vs. Jacksonville he led the team in receiving and tied for the team-lead in targets, and if Miami can get him red zone looks, his fantasy value is going to sky.
So are those upgrades worth giving up Waller? Definitely not. Through 2 weeks, Waller’s seen 24 targets and a 38.7% target share. If his usage stays anywhere near that, he may just be the No. 1 tight end this season. Don’t do this deal. Waller is too valuable.
Vincent’s Team: 35%
The Other Team: 65%
Trade #2: From Chris
Chris Receives: Miles Sanders, Amari Cooper, Travis Kelce
Chris Trades: Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, Logan Thomas
Additional Info: PPR ESPN Season League
Outlook: I’m not going to jump into a ton of advanced stats here, because I see this as a pretty simple deal. Dalvin Cook is undoubtedly a top-5 RB and Davante Adams is undoubtedly a top-3 WR. Going from them to Miles Sanders and Amari Cooper is a massive downgrade, even if both of those guys end up being top-10 at their position, which is very possible.
Is that downgrade worth the massive upgrade from Logan Thomas to Travis Kelce? In my opinion, not a chance. Kelce is probably going to be the No. 1 TE, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Logan Thomas is top-8. Through two weeks, Thomas ranks 3rd amongst TEs in targets (17), 2nd in target share (27.0%), 5th in red zone targets (3) and 3rd in deep targets (2).
It’s not worth giving away Dalvin Cook and Davante Adams to upgrade to Travis Kelce at TE.
Chris’s Team: 35%%
The Other Team: 65%
Trade #1: From Caleb
Caleb Receives: Joshua Kelley, DeVante Parker, David Montgomery
Caleb Trades: Joe Mixon, Brandin Cooks, Ronald Jones
Additional Info: PPR, 1 RB
Outlook: As someone who was huge on Joe Mixon going into the season, he’s been underwhelming so far. He had 6.1 fantasy points in Week 1 and then 12.6 fantasy points in Week 2. However, he also started slow last year and I fully expect him to pick it up.
That being said, you’re getting two guys in return that I consider to be top-25 RBs right now. The Chargers are using Joshua Kelley like they did Melvin Gordon last year. He got 23 carries last game! As long as he’s getting these touches, he’s going to be very good. Montgomery has also looked impressive thus far, scoring 21.7 points in Week 2 and catching 3 passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. In addition, I don’t think giving up Ronald Jones is a huge loss because he’s likely going to split carries with Leonard Fournette all season.
In terms of the wide receivers, Parker is an upgrade from Cooks, even though we don’t really know what Cooks is going to become yet. I’m not going to judge him off of the first two weeks, but Parker will be better.
While I still like Mixon going forward, the package that you’re getting in return is more than sufficient. Make the trade.
Caleb’s Team: 55%
The Other Team: 45%