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College Football Betting Picks: October 3, 2020

Another weekend of College Football is here, as we inch a little bit closer to the return of the Big Ten, Pac-12, Mountain West, and MAC. Full slate College Football Saturdays are just about a month away, which is absolutely incredible. However, the second weekend of the SEC, to go along with the ACC and Big 12 are providing us with a great board on Saturday.

Each Friday, I’ll be releasing my picks in an article to go along with a video. College Football betting is by far my favorite type of betting, so this is extremely exciting.

Since I haven’t posted an article with my picks over the last few weeks, I’ll update you on how I’ve been doing this season. Currently, I’m 6-5 on the season, splitting my picks last weekend by going 2-2.

If it wasn’t already clear, the teams highlighted in green are the teams I’m taking. Without further ado, let’s jump into the this weekend’s slate.

***If the lines moves a half point or point since I wrote this, these picks will remain the same regardless***

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 13 Texas A&M – 3:30 p.m. ET

Nick Saban and his Alabama Crimson Tide will have their first home game of the season on Saturday, as they host Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa. This is one of two games this weekend between ranked opponents, the other being Georgia vs. Auburn.

Last weekend, Alabama begun their season with a 38-19 at Missouri, a game where they screwed me on the spread after being up 35-3 in the third quarter, but ultimately allowing two 4th quarter garbage time TDs. I’m happy to give the Crimson Tide a pass on that one, as it’s hard to keep the foot on the pedal for an entire game on the road against one of the worst teams in the conference.

This is the week I expect Alabama to show up, and show up big for the entire game. A ranked matchup against Texas A&M in their first home game of the season? To me, this screams a game where Alabama tries to make a statement. I’m a huge fan of Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, who was 18/24 with 249 yards and two touchdowns last week before getting pulled for freshman Bryce Young in the blowout. It’s also going to be incredibly hard for the Aggies, let alone any team in the country, to stop Najee Harris, arguably the best RB in the country, and the WR duo of Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith, a pair of first round picks next year.

In terms of the Aggies, they’ve proved nothing to us over the two years, going 8-4 in the regular season in 2018, and then 7-5 in the regular season in 2019. Kellen Mond is now a senior, and doesn’t seem to have progressed at all since his sophomore year as he only threw for 189 yards and a touchdown against Vanderbilt last weekend. Vanderbilt might the worst team in the conference, and the Aggies only put up 17 points, winning the game by five, 17-12.

Last year, the score of the game was 47-28 Alabama, and I expect the score to be similar, if not a bit more lopsided, this year. Roll Tide.

Boston College vs. No. 12 North Carolina – 3:30 p.m. ET

North Carolina is my team this year. I think sophomore Sam Howell is a phenomenal quarterback and potential future No. 1 overall pick. Additionally, he has weapons, and a lot of them. Last season, wide receiver Dyami Brown had 1034 yards and 12 touchdowns and wide receiver Dazz Newsome had 1018 yards and 10 touchdowns. They’re both back along with running back Javonte Williams, who had three touchdowns in UNC’s 31-6 win over Syracuse a few weeks ago. The Tar Heels are going to put up points, and I don’t think Boston College can keep up.

Boston College, a team that has relied on their running game in prior years hasn’t been able to run the ball at all through their first couple of games. Against Duke, despite winning 26-6, Boston College only ran for 84 yards on 42 carries. They won the game because the passing game was solid, as quarterback Phil Jurkovec threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns. Last weekend vs. Texas State, the Eagles’ running game failed them again as they had 27 carries for just 87 yards, and the passing game wasn’t as good. As a result, they only won 24-21 against a Sun Belt team.

I simply don’t trust Boston College to keep up with North Carolina potentially scoring 40 points in this game.

Kansas vs. No. 17 Oklahoma St. – 3:30 p.m. ET

Death, taxes, and betting against Kansas football. Kansas might be the worst Power-5 football program, and the only other competition is Rutgers. Kansas lost at home to Coastal Carolina 38-23 in their first game, and lost on the road to Baylor 47-14 last game.

Oklahoma State is a team that I think can win the Big 12 this year. Unfortunately, the Cowboys lost QB Spencer Sanders to an ankle injury in their first game, but it looks like they may get him back this week. Even if they don’t, backup Shane Illingworth was a good enough game manager to lead Oklahoma State to a 27-13 victory over West Virginia last weekend.

Between RBs Chubba Hubbard and LD Brown, and WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State’s skill position players will be too much for Kansas to handle. I mean let’s get real here… They couldn’t even handle Coastal Carolina.

Iowa St. vs. No. 18 Oklahoma – 7:30 p.m. ET

Last week was a disaster for Oklahoma. Blowing a 35-14 lead to Kansas State at home is ridiculous. Spencer Rattler looked rattled in his first Big 12 start, as his threw three interceptions. The Sooners defense was nonexistent.

However, this is blatant disrespect if I’ve ever seen it. This is an overreaction to the Sooners’ performance last weekend. It’s not like Iowa State is some great team. The Cyclones lost 31-14 on opening weekend to Louisiana at home. Last weekend, Iowa State survived QB Brock Purdy’s backwards pick-six to come away with a 37-34 victory at TCU. This Iowa State team isn’t very good at all.

I expect Oklahoma to rebound from last week and put an absolute beatdown on Iowa State. Spencer Rattler will be more composed in his second Big 12 start, and the skill position talent on offense between RB Seth McGowan, WR Charleston Rambo and more will carry Oklahoma to 42+ points. The only thing that can stop a cover is if Iowa State can score 30+ themselves, which I won’t completely rule out, but I just don’t trust them based on what I’ve seen thus far.

Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma win big in this one.

No. 16 Mississippi St. vs. Arkansas – 7:30 p.m. ET

What we saw last week from Mississippi State has never been seen in the SEC before. K.J Costello set the SEC single-game passing record in his first game with the Bulldogs with 623 yards and threw five touchdowns to go along with it. Just like that, Mike Leach and his air raid offense took down the reigning National Champions, the LSU Tigers, by 10, 44-34.

Arkansas held it together in the first half vs. Georgia, leading 7-5 at halftime. However, it all fell apart for the Razorbacks once Kirby Smart replaced QB D’Wan Mathis with QB Stetson Bennett. The barrage of points for the Bulldogs in the second half helped them to cover the spread and win by 27 points, 37-10. Arkansas’s offense led by Felipe Franks looked inept, as Franks threw for only 200 yards on 36 passes, one touchdown and two interceptions.

This game is as simple as, Mississippi State is going to score a ton of points and I don’t trust Arkansas to score more than 20, which may be high-balling it a bit. Mike Leach and the Bulldogs will win big in their first home game of the season.

2-Team Underdog ML Parlay +1100
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss (+190) – 4 p.m. ET
Texas vs. TCU (+315) – 12 p.m. ET

Each week I’m going to choose a long shot, underdog, money line parlay. This week, I’m taking Ole Miss over Kentucky, and TCU over Texas.

Last week, Ole Miss’s offense showed some promise, putting up 35 points vs. a really good Florida team. If QB Matt Corral can repeat that performance this week (395 yards, 3 TDs last week), I like Ole Miss’s chances against Kentucky, a team that doesn’t score many points.

In terms of Texas, everyone always thinks they’re back but they never are. The Longhorns went 7-5 in the regular season in 2019, and proved they haven’t improved much as they barely scraped by Texas Tech in a shootout last weekend, 63-56. Considering the insanity of the Big 12 thus far, I’ll take my chances on a long shot with TCU, who’s offense was promising in its 37-34 loss last week vs. Iowa St. Anything can happen in a Big 12 shootout, and that’s what I expect once again this week.

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