We’re back with another week of College Football!
Last week was an interesting week for the card, as I went 2-3 with my normal spread picks, but won my underdog moneyline parlay at 11/1. The picks that I won were Oklahoma State -23 over Kansas and Alabama -18 over Texas A&M. The picks I lost were UNC -14, Oklahoma -7.5, and Mississippi State -17. You can be sure that it’ll be a while before I bet on Oklahoma again after its absolutely brutal performance in Ames, Iowa last weekend.
The moneyline parlay was TCU and Ole Miss, both of which got the job done as road underdogs. Ole Miss won in overtime due to a Kentucky missed extra point, so thank you to that kicker.
Last week’s results bring me to 8-8 on spread picks on the season, but 1-0 in underdog moneyline parlays. The parlays are great, because basically all you need is one or two hits on the season to at minimum break even. Since I already won one, we’re in business. Let’s get to this week’s slate.
***If the lines moves a half point or point since I wrote this, these picks will still remain the same***
Texas A&M vs. No. 4 Florida – 12 p.m. ET
Florida has looked absolutely outstanding so far this season. First, the Gators dismantled Ole Miss 51-35 on the road to open the season. Then, they dominated South Carolina in their second game, 38-24.
QB Kyle Trask and TE Kyle Pitts headline this explosive offense, and both have looked like Heisman candidates thus far. Trask has 684 yards and 10 touchdowns so far this season, and Pitts has 12 receptions for 227 yards and six touchdowns. When your QB is averaging five touchdowns per game and your tight end is averaging three touchdowns per game, things are going right for you.
Looking at Texas A&M, it’s been the complete opposite for them. The Aggies barely squeaked by Vanderbilt to open up the season, 17-12. Additionally, they struggled on both sides of the ball in Tuscaloosa last week against Alabama, losing 52-24.
If there’s one thing to be worried about with Florida, it’s their defense. The Gators have allowed 29.5 points per game thus far to average opponents. It’s the only thing that can stop them from going to the College Football Playoff this season. However, despite the defensive struggles of Florida, I don’t trust Texas A&M to be able to score enough points to keep up and cover this spread. Scoring 20.5 points per game through the first two games is not ideal. I mentioned this last week, but it doesn’t seem that QB Kellen Mond has improved much at all since his sophomore season. Jimbo Fisher is still looking for his signature win as Texas A&M head coach, but it won’t come this week vs the Gators.
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 14 Tennessee – 3:30 p.m. ET
This Georgia-Tennessee matchup is one between two teams that are red-hot going in. Georgia is coming off a 27-6 beatdown of Auburn last week, while Tennessee has won eight straight games dating back until last year. None of these wins for Tennessee came against ranked opponents, but a win is a win, and the Volunteers deserves credit for that, especially after how they started the 2019 season.
However, given the fact that Tennessee hasn’t played a ranked opponent in so long, I think they’re in for a shock tomorrow in Athens. Looking at how Tennessee got their season started, it’s very dependent on the run. Against South Carolina, the Volunteers ran for 4.0 yards per carry and against Missouri, they ran for 232 yards and four touchdowns on 4.5 yards per carry. Last week vs. Auburn, Georgia allowed a total of 39 yards rushing on 1.8 yards per carry and the week before at Arkansas, the Bulldogs allowed 77 yards rushing on 2.8 yards per carry.
Tennessee is going to need to throw the ball in order to win this game, and I don’t think that’ll be successful. Volunteers QB Jared Guarantano is decent, but not good enough to get this job done. Georgia’s allowed 16 total points in its first two games combined, and I think this is going to be another statement win for them. The Bulldogs will win this game by 2+ TDs, enough to cover the spread.
TCU vs. Kansas State – 4 p.m ET
If I’ve learned one thing through two weeks this season, it’s bet Big 12 underdogs. I’ve lost two straight Oklahoma bets, and won my TCU bet as part of my parlay last week. This conference is not good at all outside of Oklahoma State, and yet TCU is favored by nine points.
What has TCU done to earn being favored by nine? Beat an overrated Texas team on the road? Let’s not forget that the Horned Frogs lost at home to Iowa State the week before. Additionally, Kansas State is playing good football. It’s won its last two games after losing the opener to Arkansas State, beating Oklahoma two weeks ago and then winning last week vs. Texas Tech 31-21.
I’m not buying this line at all, and think that Kansas State keeps it close, enough to cover the spread. Kansas State is playing well on both sides of the ball since the second half of the Oklahoma game. As you’ll see later in this article, I wouldn’t even be surprised if the Wildcats win outright.
No. 5 Notre Dame vs. Florida State – 7:30 p.m. ET
After watching Florida State the last two weeks, I saw this line and wondered if it was a trap. The Seminoles got blown out by Miami 52-10 two weeks ago, and then followed it up by beating Jacksonville State 41-24, a game that they were losing for a decent amount of the time before pulling away in the second half.
Florida State is a very bad football team and one that has absolutely no offense due to its offensive line, which PFF ranked at 129 out of 130 FBS teams following last season. The Seminoles do have some talent on defense, including potential top-10 defensive tackle Marvin Wilson.
However, they’ll be on the road against a Notre Dame team that’s been waiting to get on the field for three weeks. The Irish’s defense has looked great in the two games they’ve played, allowing a combined 13 points. Yes, Duke, and South Florida are two bad teams, but I’ll give credit where credit is due. Additionally, Notre Dame’s offense is led by experienced quarterback Ian Book, and features a dominant backfield led by running back Kyren Williams.
This is more about a Florida State fade, than a Notre Dame play, but I see the Fighting Irish scoring in the upper 30s at minimum Saturday night, and I’m not sure Florida State will score more than 10. Notre Dame wins in a blowout, and covers the spread at home.
Three-Team Underdog ML Parlay +2380
TCU vs. Kansas State (+265) – 4 p.m. ET
Boston College (+195) vs. Pitt – 4 p.m. ET
Kentucky vs. Mississippi St. (+130) – 7:30 p.m. ET
Maybe I’m getting a bit overconfident after my parlay hit, but yes, I’m playing a three-team underdog moneyline parlay this week. If you feel that three is too much, then feel free to pick two of these teams and make it a two-teamer.
Underdogs were 23-7 against the spread last week. In the most unpredictable year we’ve ever seen in College Football history, I think this is a trend that’ll continue this year. We’ve seen lots of upsets, and many are going to come each week, which is why I’m beginning to like these parlays more and more.
I explained why I like Kansas State earlier in this article, so I won’t waste people’s time by reiterating that point. Looking at Boston College, I was really impressed the fight it put up against North Carolina at home last week. If the Eagles were able to convert a two-point conversion at the end of the game, they would have been headed to overtime.
Meanwhile, Pitt is coming off a devastating home loss to NC State, a team it was favored against by two touchdowns. Negative momentum is definitely a thing in college football, and as teams lose games they should win, it gets in their heads the rest of the season.
NC State’s quarterback went for 336 yards and four touchdowns last weekend against Pitt. I was really impressed by Boston College’s QB Phil Jurkovec last weekend. He could do similar things to this Pitt secondary. Additionally, both of these teams aren’t going to put up a lot of points, so I think we’ll get a low scoring game with a total somewhere between 40 and 45. I think Boston College has a decent chance to get the win here as a home dog.
Let’s take a look now at Mississippi State, a team that went from knocking off the defending National Champions and setting SEC passing records to losing to Arkansas. I think the Bulldogs are going to be inconsistent this season. Mike Leach did similar things at Washington State in his years there. Some games, the team would look unreal, and other games the team would look awful. I do expect them to bounce back big this week vs. Kentucky. KJ Costello is a really solid QB who won’t have another three interception performance again this week.
Kentucky struggled defensively vs. Ole Miss last week, and I think they’ll struggle here again vs. Mississippi State. The Wildcats’ offense is one that won’t put up a ton of points (unless they play Ole Miss), so I don’t expect them to keep pace with Mississippi State. That’s why I think the Bulldogs come out on top in Lexington on Saturday.